State of the Grapes - Wine Marlborough column

Kat Pickford

Marlborough’s vineyards have never been more productive, with expansion and near-perfect growing conditions delivering three bumper harvests in four years. At the same time, global growth in consumption of wine has slowed, creating a short-term supply imbalance.

Even so, wineries remain confident that the long-term appetite for premium Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc is secure.

Wine Marlborough general manager Marcus Pickens says the region’s wines continue to punch above their weight internationally, with Sauvignon Blanc leading that success.

“Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc remains one of the world’s most recognisable wine styles, with more than a million bottles enjoyed globally every day,” Marcus says. “But this run of record harvests, alongside steady rather than surging demand, has created an imbalance that is putting pressure on growers and wineries in the short term.”

He says restoring balance will take time, and strong communication between wineries and growers will be essential. While some are considering stepping back from the industry, others are using this period to remove vines temporarily from production or replant to be ready for future growth.

The industry’s more cautious approach and reduced spending will have some flow-on effects for the community, he says, but the foundations of Marlborough’s wine sector remain strong. “The wine industry isn’t going away. The prospects remain positive, but supply, demand and expenditure will all be managed very carefully over the next year or so.”

Marlborough Grapegrowers Cooperative (MGGC) viticulturist Mart Verstappen says the company is working closely with its 76-member grower base, who own 820 hectares of vineyards, to ensure they understand market dynamics and expectations for the coming season.

“Like any responsible wine company, we are working closely with our growers to cap yields until supply and demand are back in balance,” Mart says. But whether Mother Nature or operational management will determine the outcome of vintage 2026 remains to be seen.

“After near-perfect conditions during flowering last year, the stage has been set for an average to slightly above average harvest. But history shows ideal conditions are rare. Unfavourable weather in late November and early December can have a big impact – only time will tell what vintage 2026 delivers.”

Alongside supply pressures, wineries are navigating a more complex global landscape, with shifting consumer trends and rising costs from compliance, excise taxes and tariffs in key markets. Historic data shows a correlation between supply, demand, and grape and wine prices, suggesting returns are likely to improve once balance is restored.

Chair of the Marlborough Winegrowers Association Board, James Macdonald, says that after decades of strong growth – when Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc almost sold itself on its distinctive flavours – the industry is now entering a new era of marketing and storytelling.

“Some of the biggest Marlborough brands don’t even have a website or social media,” he says. “It will be very interesting to see how wineries adapt to this new way of selling wine. In my experience, marketing is a much harder discipline than growing grapes or making wine.”

While demand in traditional markets has plateaued, there are still opportunities for growth – but the easy wins are over, and it will be slower and more costly. The challenge now, he says, is finding new ways to sell surplus wine without undermining the reputation the industry has worked so hard to build.

“Now is the perfect time to improve the value proposition of your brand. Quality needs to be at the forefront of everyone’s mind, and nobody is going to get a free pass on this.”

This monthly Rural column is provided to the Marlborough Weekly by Wine Marlborough.